What Is Alpha Confidence?
Alpha Confidence is a skill-based forecasting system where you prove your trading intelligence without risking capital.
You allocate Confidence Points (CP) on short-term crypto predictions. Get them right → earn reputation, XP, rankings, and real trading benefits. Get them wrong → learn and improve.
This is NOT gambling. There are no betting pools, no user-to-user payouts. Your rewards come from demonstrating skill, not from other users losing.
Why Should You Use It?
Problem 1: You Have Opinions But No Proof
Every day you think:
"Smart money is accumulating"
But where's the proof? Twitter claims are unverifiable. Discord calls disappear. Alpha Confidence tracks every prediction you make and builds your permanent track record.
Problem 2: Trading Has High Risk Exposure
To express conviction today, you must:
Alpha Confidence lets you express directional views without capital risk. Test your instincts before committing real money.
Problem 3: You Don't Know Who To Trust
Twitter "alpha" = mostly noise
Discord calls = unverifiable
Anyone can claim "I called it"
Alpha Confidence creates verified track records. Top performers have public accuracy stats, category expertise, and proven consistency.
Problem 4: Dead Time Between Trades
Most trading apps are passive - you wait for opportunities, then wait for exits. Alpha Confidence keeps you engaged continuously with fresh markets every few minutes.
Step 1: Markets Appear Automatically
Our system monitors every trade on Solana in real-time. When we detect significant activity, we create prediction markets automatically:
What triggers markets?
Trigger
What We Detected
Market Created
Profitable wallets buying
"Will smart money keep buying?"
"Will token 2x in 2 hours?"
"Will token reach 100k MC?"
"Will token rug in 1 hour?"
"Will token graduate to PumpSwap, Raydium, or Meteora?"
Step 2: You Allocate Confidence Points
You get 500 CP per day to allocate across markets. For each market, you split up to 100 CP between YES and NO.
What does your allocation mean?
"I'm 100% confident this will happen"
"Probably yes, but hedging a bit"
"Definitely won't happen"
Higher conviction = higher risk/reward. If you allocate 100 YES and you're right, you get maximum XP. If you're wrong, it hurts your score more.
Step 3: Market Resolves Automatically
We monitor the blockchain continuously. The moment a target is hit (or time expires), the market resolves:
Resolution is automatic and trustless:
Price targets → resolved when on-chain price hits target
Liquidity targets → resolved when on-chain liquidity changes
Graduation → resolved when token migrates to DEXs
Time expiry → if target not hit, resolves as NO
Step 4: Your Reputation Grows
Every prediction builds your permanent track record:
The Scoring System
Confidence Points (CP)
Strategy tip: Don't blow all 500 CP on one market. Spread across 5-10 markets to build consistent accuracy.
XP (Experience Points)
XP determines your level. Earn it by correct predictions:
Example:
Hard difficulty (2.0x multiplier)
You allocated 80 YES / 20 NO (80% conviction → +50% bonus)
XP if correct: 25 × 2.0 × 1.5 = 75 XP
Alpha Score (0-1000)
Your reputation score. Higher = more respected.
Alpha Score matters because:
It's visible on leaderboards
High scorers become trusted signal sources
Future features will give benefits to high scorers
Badges & Achievements
Earn badges by hitting milestones:
Accuracy Badges
60%+ accuracy (20+ markets)
70%+ accuracy (50+ markets)
80%+ accuracy (100+ markets)
90%+ accuracy (100+ markets)
Category Badges
70%+ in momentum (30+ markets)
70%+ in smart money (30+ markets)
70%+ in risk (30+ markets)
70%+ in survival (30+ markets)
Alpha Score Badges
Market Categories Explained
Momentum Markets
What they are: Price movement predictions based on volume and momentum signals.
Typical questions:
"Will $TOKEN 2x in 2 hours?"
"Will $TOKEN 5x in 3 hours?"
"Will $TOKEN 10x in 6 hours?"
When they appear: When we detect unusual volume or price movement.
Strategy tips:
2x predictions are easier than 10x
Check the trigger - smart money entry = higher probability
Near-graduation tokens have momentum behind them
Smart Money Markets
What they are: Predictions about profitable wallet behavior.
Typical questions:
"Will smart money continue buying?"
"Will smart money hold their positions?"
"Will smart money accumulate more?"
When they appear: When profitable wallets (tracked by our system) enter a token.
Strategy tips:
Smart money entry is bullish short-term
But smart money also takes profits - watch for exit signals
Multiple smart wallets = stronger signal
What they are: Predictions about potential dangers and manipulation.
Typical questions:
"Will liquidity drop 50%?"
"Will the deployer dump?"
"Will this token rug in 1 hour?"
When they appear: When we detect manipulation, insider activity, or suspicious patterns.
Strategy tips:
High bot activity = high rug risk
Deployer holding large % = danger
These markets help you avoid traps
Survival Markets
What they are: Predictions about new tokens surviving or hitting milestones.
Typical questions:
"Will $TOKEN survive the next hour?"
"Will $TOKEN reach 100k market cap?"
"Will $TOKEN graduate to Raydium?"
When they appear: When new tokens launch on Pump.fun.
Strategy tips:
Most new tokens fail - NO is often correct
High organic % = better survival odds
Graduation requires sustained buying pressure
Global Leaderboard
Ranked by Alpha Score. Updated continuously.
Category Leaderboards
Separate rankings for each market category. Dominate your specialty.
Daily/Weekly Leaderboards
Fresh competition every day/week. Reset and compete again.
How This Helps Your Trading
1. Build Verifiable Track Record
Before Alpha Confidence:
"Trust me bro, I called $PEPE"
After Alpha Confidence:
"My Momentum accuracy is 72% over 150 markets. Check my profile."
2. Test Your Instincts Risk-Free
Think a token will pump? Instead of:
Buying → risking slippage, rug, loss
Do this:
Allocate CP → validate your thesis
If right → you have conviction to trade
If wrong → you learned without losing money
3. Discover Your Strengths
After 50+ markets, you'll know:
Are you better at momentum or risk detection?
Do you catch smart money moves?
Are you good at survival predictions?
Trade what you're good at. Avoid what you're not.
4. Follow Proven Analysts
Top leaderboard traders have verified accuracy. Follow their thinking:
What markets are they allocating to?
What's their conviction level?
What patterns do they catch?
5. Stay Engaged Between Trades
New markets appear every few minutes. Instead of:
Waiting passively for opportunities
You're:
Quick Start Guide
Step 1: Connect
Open the app → Connect your wallet → You're in
Step 2: Browse Markets
Look at active markets. Start with MEDIUM difficulty to learn.
Step 3: Make Your First Allocation
Pick a market you have conviction on. Allocate:
70 YES / 30 NO if you think it'll happen
30 YES / 70 NO if you think it won't
Step 4: Wait for Resolution
Markets resolve automatically. You'll get notified.
Step 5: Check Your Stats
See your accuracy, Alpha Score, and category performance.
Step 6: Improve
Analyze your wins and losses
Focus on categories where you're strong
Build consistency over volume
Tip 1: Consistency Over Volume
Making 10 correct predictions out of 15 is better than 50 correct out of 100. Focus on quality.
Tip 2: Use Your Category Strengths
If you're 72% accurate on Momentum but 50% on Risk, focus on Momentum markets.
Tip 3: High Conviction = High Reward
Allocating 90/10 when you're right earns more than 55/45. But only do this when you're truly confident.
Tip 4: Learn From Losses
Every wrong prediction is data. Ask yourself:
How do I avoid this next time?
Tip 5: Watch the Triggers
Markets tell you WHY they were created:
"Triggered by: Smart Money Entry" = bullish signal
"Triggered by: Bot Farm Detected" = danger signal
Use this context in your prediction.
Tip 6: Time Your Allocations
Markets lock 1 minute before expiry. If you see new information late, you can still allocate (but barely).
Tip 7: Build Streaks
Streaks multiply your reputation gains. A 10-streak makes you stand out.
Q: Do I need to spend real money? A: No. Confidence Points are free daily. No purchase required.
Q: Can I lose money? A: No. Alpha Confidence is reputation-based. Your only "loss" is Alpha Score points.
Q: How do markets resolve? A: Automatically based on on-chain data. If price hits 2x, the market resolves YES. If time expires without hitting target, it resolves NO.
Q: Can markets be manipulated? A: No. Resolution is based on actual blockchain data, not user votes or opinions.
Q: What happens if I'm wrong? A: You lose some Alpha Score points (-3) and don't earn XP. Your accuracy stat goes down. That's it.
Q: How do I climb the leaderboard? A: Consistent accuracy over many markets. A 70% accuracy over 100 markets beats 80% accuracy over 10 markets.
Q: Can I change my allocation? A: Yes, until the market locks (1 minute before expiry).
Q: What's the point of badges? A: Flex. Show your achievements on your profile. Some may unlock future perks.
Q: Why should I trust the system? A: All market data comes from on-chain sources. Resolution is deterministic and verifiable. No human intervention.
Skill-based forecasting system
XP, Alpha Score, Rankings, Badges
Auto-generated from on-chain signals
Automatic, trustless, on-chain
Prove your trading intelligence, build reputation
The Bottom Line
Alpha Confidence turns your trading instincts into a verifiable track record.
Prove you can predict markets
Build reputation that matters
Stay sharp between trades
Your opinions become data. Your instincts become proof. Your reputation becomes undeniable.
Start predicting. Start proving. Start climbing.
